In his budget report in March 2001, the chancellor forecast the UK would grow between 2.25% and 2.75% in the year.
But research from mid-tier firm Tenon, based on the UK’s quarterly economic figures released yesterday, indicates Brown would not have reached his goal unless the economy had experienced a sharp and unlikely growth spurt.
Tenon’s chief economist Maurice Fitzpatrick said: ‘Our analysis suggests that, based on the actual economic growth achieved in the quarters to June 2001, even the lower estimate of this figure would not have been achieved.’
He added that in order to achieve the lower end of Brown’s forecast (2.5%), economic growth would have to rebound to levels not seen since mid-2000 in the last two quarters of this year.
‘It is inevitable that, in his pre-budget report, [Brown] will downgrade his economic forecast for 2001,’ said Fitzpatrick
He concluded: ‘[Brown] will put at least some of the blame on the aftermath of ‘Terrorist Tuesday’. However, our analysis suggests that even in [its] absence…he would not have achieved his original growth forecast.’
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