BusinessCompany NewsLies, damn lies and statistics …

Lies, damn lies and statistics ...

It has been suggested on numerous occasions that the economic growth forecasts set out in chancellor Brown's April 2003 Budget (2-2.5% growth for 2003, and 3-3.5% growth for 2004) will have to be revised in the November 2003 pre-Budget Report (PBR). They almost certainly will be.

In order for the lower end (2%) of the forecast to be met for 2003, growth would have to rebound to 0.9% in the third quarter of 2003, representing economic growth 0.6% higher than the 0.3% achieved in 2003 Q2, and to 1.1% in 2003 Q4. In terms of quarterly economic growth rates over the past 10 years, such a rebound from 2003 Q2 to Q3 would be unprecedented.

A more likely pattern is 0.5% growth in 2003 Q3, and then for economic growth to average around 0.7% a quarter for the remainder of 2003 and throughout 2004. This would produce economic growth of 1.75% in 2003 and 2.6% in 2004.

Stand by for a reduction in the November 2003 PBR of forecast economic growth for 2003 to 1.75% and to a range 2.5% to 3% for 2004. If chancellor Brown does reduce his spring Budget central forecast for economic growth in his November 2003 PBR, this will be the third year in a row it has happened.

  • Maurice Fitzpatrick, head of economics at Numerica.

Related Articles

BDO replaces Deloitte as Mitie auditor

Audit BDO replaces Deloitte as Mitie auditor

3m Emma Smith, Managing Editor
CVR Global appoints partner in London office

Company News CVR Global appoints partner in London office

7m Alia Shoaib, Reporter
FTSE100 failing to provide adequate ethics information

Company News FTSE100 failing to provide adequate ethics information

7m Alia Shoaib, Reporter
Moore Stephens recruits new private client partner

Accounting Firms Moore Stephens recruits new private client partner

10m Emma Smith, Managing Editor
Magma Group announces merger, partner promotions

Accounting Firms Magma Group announces merger, partner promotions

10m Emma Smith, Managing Editor
BDO on ‘recruitment spree’ with multiple partner appointments

Accounting Firms BDO on ‘recruitment spree’ with multiple partner appointments

10m Emma Smith, Managing Editor
Brand strength leads to fee income growth for RSM

Accounting Firms Brand strength leads to fee income growth for RSM

10m Emma Smith, Managing Editor
Mazars strengthens audit team with partner appointment

Accounting Firms Mazars strengthens audit team with partner appointment

10m Emma Smith, Managing Editor