Book review

Against the Gods

By: Peter L Bernstein

Price: #17.99

Publisher: Wiley

It is reckoned that a grounding in statistics and probability is the best foundation for rational decision-making in later life, far more so than rival disciplines such as economics, history or even logic. Yet statistical studies have a reputation for being dry as dust, and few who are not actively seeking to work in the field bother to learn even the basics. That the resulting legions of innumerates continue to make disastrous decisions, both personally and politically is a national scandal.

Peter Bernstein’s book, if widely read, could go some way towards redressing the balance. He has succeeded in making the story of probability and risk assessment not merely palatable, but positively exciting. He traces the development of the “Theory of Chances” from its earliest beginnings, introducing successive pioneering mathematicians in chapters that read with the urgency of a thriller. The maths is kept relatively simple, but it is conceivable that a non-statistician might be tempted to learn some technique after reading the opening chapters.

But the opening section of the book, masterly as it is, is merely the curtain-raiser to the main act: the management of risk in the economy and financial markets. The lucid explanation of derivatives and futures markets is worth the price of the book alone. Stock market crashes, the Keynesian revolution, are all woven into this tightly-knit story which at the same time is wide ranging enough to cast its intellectual spotlight on Game and Chaos theory. Rarely have analysis and narrative been so skilfully intertwined. A tour de force.

Rethinking the future

By: Charles Handy, Stephen Covey, Michael Porter, CK Prahalad, Gary Hamel, Michael Hammer, Eli Goldratt, Peter Senge, Warren Bennis, John Kotter, Al Ries & Jack Trout, Peter Kotler, John Naisbitt, Lester Thurow and Kevin Kelly

Price: #16.99

Publisher: Nicholas Brealey Publishing

If you have ever wanted to look into a crystal ball and see the way of the future, this book is the one for you. In around 250 pages, it brings together the thoughts of some of the most well-known business gurus on the changes that organisations will have to adapt to in the future.

The emphasis is all on how the businesses will need to respond to the future. As Charles Handy says: “For years, corporate chairmen have been talking about their people as their primary assets. It’s time they woke up to the fact that it’s actually true, because their only hope for future security lies in the brains of those people.”

Increased globalisation, competition, and change in management rules feature highly throughout the book. The gurus warn that this is likely to affect the structure of firms worldwide, their choice of leaders and the type of ordinary staff needed to fulfil these new demanding roles.

Warren Bennis explores the role of leaders of the future and their need to be more in-touch on a global and synergistic level. He emphasises that: “What leaders must learn to do is develop a social architecture that encourages incredibly bright people, most of whom have big egos, to work together successfully and to deploy their own creativity.”

Within “Containing control and complexity”, Peter Senge’s chapter, “Through the eye of the needle”, looks at how “out of control” large organisations can become more out of control with the help of new speeded up technology.

He points out that firms use this to continue within their original mindset, and so avoid dealing with the real issue, which is changing their basic assumptions.

The book contains some fascinating insights on rethinking markets, principles and competition. Michael Porter writes on how to create tomorrow’s advantages.

He also outlines the new ways of approaching competitive strategy and the likely pitfalls in strategic thinking, and focuses on building advantages rather than eliminating disadvantages.

Diary of a Change Agent

By: Tony Page

Price: #32.50

Publisher: Gower

The Diary of a Change Agent is exactly as it sounds: the diary of a consultant implementing change management programmes within organisations and trying to make relationships between people work.

The book looks at all issues relating to fads in business process reengineering (BPR), total quality management (TQM) and others. It includes re-inflating managers and workers’ broken egos, and helping them to regain their motivation and confidence after the firm’s latest fad has gone wrong, or even if it is going right.

Tony Page documents his work on the job and the problems that come up for clients when approaching any form of change. He includes time mapping processes on how to approach different types of work, whether that is handling enquiries, administration and management or marketing and public relations.

The diary also investigates life changing programmes that can help consultants change their own reactions and responses when dealing with people. Page, the change agent, goes on transformational development courses at the Association of Management Education and Development courses (AMED), looks at NLP courses and Gap analyses for personal development methods and ways to connect to people.

Most important of all though are Page’s conclusions about the day’s work.

He looks at his approach to clients, how it can be improved and evaluates how the clients respond in a step by step analysis, which, among others, includes value through testing commitment, lowering expectations, holding fire and trusting people.

The book is a combination of human and business analysis. It is full of exciting approaches to problems for both the consultant and the client.

All in all it is a life-training book, giving the reader the opportunity to gauge his or her emotional response to situations within the book, and how to make use of those while reading and throughout life. It also deals with how we deny feelings of discomfort and stress, blame others for them and project them onto those around us, both in business and at home.

The Age of Heretics-heroes, outlaws and the forerunners of corporate change.

By: Art Kleiner

Price: #20.00

Publisher: Nicholas Brealey Publishing

How many times have you undermined and maligned the ideas of staff members and then used them and taken the credit? This is something that happens daily in offices world-wide. As a result people are branded heretics.

This use of heretics’ ideas is also one of the reasons that has led to organisations changing to the extent that they have over the last 40 years.

So are these heretics or just modern day heroes? Corporate heretics are not part of the soulless numbers that govern corporations blindly.

They believe in a truth that contradicts the conventional wisdom of your organisation, and yet still remain loyal to both the institution and the truth. And they are side-lined for their wisdom.

What is interesting is that the heretical ideas of the ’50s, ’60s and ’70s are now part of mainstream corporate culture. And companies have benefited from the “dissent” of the few.

Art Kleiner takes us on an interesting journey through these decades and the history of these heretics. From Monastics, through Pelagians to Millenarians, he tracks the changes that occurred worldwide, both in national institutions and multi-national companies. A valuable read for organisations and management that remain in denial and think they are always right.