Do you want the good news or the bad news?
The FTSE 100 is continuing its progress north , banks are reporting improved results, house prices are stabilising…… we may be seeing a bottoming out of the recession! That’s the good news.
The bad news is that after the summer lull, analysts expect company insolvencies to continue to rise along with unemployment rates. Many believe that UK companies have done pretty well in the main, trying to cut running costs in the face of falling sales, and often calling on financial reserves to keep the wolf from the door. However, in a sustained period of recession, the money can run out before the turnround comes to the rescue. From credit analysts i have spoken to, I get the impression that the heavily affected construction and steel sectors will have to take a few more hits before the year is out.
Earlier today, the government released the latest insolvency figures for the second quarter of 2009, showing that they totalled just over 5000 in England and Wales. The 1991/92 recession saw figures climbing to over 6000 a quarter , and I expect to see similar figures this time round towards the tail end of this year, I’m afraid. Sorry to sound so gloomy, but I’ve also just seen the latest cricket score from Headingly. Oh dear!