Nice to see that the ICAEW believes the economy, and more to the point the recession, is on the turn (click here). Up until very recently the media seemed determined to paint a worsening picture of the economy. You almost got the sense that they wanted it to deteriorate into some kind of natural disaster.
ICAEW figures due today should dhow confidence returning and GDP growth of 0.5% in the third quarter.
And despite the general pessimism other believe the same thing. This week in our sister publication Financial Director (click here) HSBC’s chief economist Dennis Turner sees reason to be cheerful. He believes the worst of the recession may be over and points to the run down in stock as being partly responsibly. When the recession hit producers cut production and supplied buyers from existing stock. The inventory has now gone and they must now supply even weak demand from increased production. That could create jobs and see GDP start to lift.
Which will be a relief to Alistair Darling whose prediction that things would improve before the end of this year was widely derided (even by me).
The question is whether it will be a sustainable improvement or whether we are looking at a long period of low or virtually negligible growth. We’re still not out of the woods.
*Dennis Turner’s piece will available from financialdirector.co.uk from Tuesday 23 August
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