Looking forward to 2008?

In our annual round-up of opinions of the FDs we interviewed in 2007, we find broad agreement that 2008 is going to be a tougher year. But the trick will be to not talk ourselves into recession

Written by Financial Director

What are your key priorities as an FD for 2008?
Tony Conophy, Computacenter:
We expect a slowdown in investment banking spend in 2008 and need to find ways to counteract this impact on our business. As the business expands the range of service offerings, the complexity of contracts increases and we expect to see this to continue to increase. This presents operational and financial challenges.

Nick Eastwood, Rugby Football: Manage cash flow and liquidity.

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Simon Lane, William Hill: Continue to focus on tight control of costs and progress the international operations of the business.

Judith McKenna, Asda: People, recruitment and development. Always on my list is aligning customer priorities with commercial priorities ­ critical in a tightening consumer environment. At a practical level, we are implementing SAP financial systems with a go-live at the end of next year: that’s a big opportunity, but a big financial control risk if we don’t manage it well.

David Nish, Standard Life: Standard Life has completed its first year as a plc, therefore a key focus is to continue to strengthen the link between the drivers of operational performance and shareholder value. We must take advantage of the significant number of growth opportunities that we have.

Are you concerned about the UK or world economy?
Conophy: Yes, both. It has taken some time for the credit crunch to impact the real economy; we are now starting to see this. There is a tendency in the good times for people to get too exuberant and likewise in the more challenging period, to be too pessimistic.

Eastwood: There are clear warning signs and one of the worrying features of the recent US sub-prime issue is that there is no transparency in the system on the extent and size of the problem. The danger is that, because of this, warnings of recession become self-fulfilling.

Lane: The UK economy is of some concern going into 2008 as the full impact of the credit crisis on consumer behaviour is still unclear.

McKenna: People will have less money and will be more cautious about what and where they spend it. We must make sure we don’t talk ourselves into a bigger crisis.

Nish: Cautious. The impact of change and events are now felt more immediately and are generally more severe. Views remain that significant issues exist in several sectors of the global economy which are not yet fully understood.

The FTSE-100 index is around 6,310. What is your expectation for the index at the end of next year?
Conophy: As the real economy is impacted, I expect that we will see further decline, but will then see recovery towards Q2 next year to finish the year around 6,500.

Eastwood: Don’t expect much change ­ underlying performance gains may be offset by general market caution.

Lane: I would expect a flat performance during 2008.
McKenna: I’ve often thought a crystal ball would be a useful tool to do this job.
Nish: A combination of credit problems and uncertainty about the economic backdrop mean a more difficult investment environment is expected. Markets will continue to be volatile and any forecast will be wrong ­ or if right , a lucky guess.

What advice do you have for finance directors for 2008?
Conophy: The credit crunch will continue to impact finance availability and thus working capital management will increase in priority, as will the continuing trend towards increasing transparency in reporting.
Eastwood: Same as Q1: Manage cash flow and liquidity.

Lane: Keep costs tight and be prepared for any adverse trends in consumer behaviour.

McKenna: I’ll be asking my team to ensure they continue work in partnership with the business, getting out to stores and across our trading floor to ensure we really understand what is going on so we can provide first class decision and support.

Nish: Expect the unexpected and be clear about the risks faced and the levers of performance you can control and influence. Ensure contingency plans are robust and tested ­ taking things for granted can be risky.

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