BusinessGreen.com: What is the thinking behind
Climos?
Dan Whaley: Climos was founded in 2006 with the goal of exploring
geoscale processes for mitigating the effects of climate change. The company
represents a genuine partnership between entrepreneurs, primarily from the
technology sector, and scientists who are world renowned experts in this field.
Our chief scientist is Margaret Leinen, who was the former head of geosciences
at the National Science Foundation and one of the world's most respected
oceanographers. The aim is to put together a dream team of climate sciences and
increase focus on geo-engineering technology that some people regard as
controversial, but which growing numbers of scientists feel is definitely worth
a second look.
And your primary focus is on ocean fertilisation projects.
Yes. There are 10 to 20 different geo-engineering ideas being discussed
that could mitigate the effects of climate change, many of which are
interesting, but ocean fertilisation has the greatest research background with
12 open ocean projects having been completed and close to 500 papers written on
the topic.
How does ocean fertilisation work?
All plants need nutrients to grow. They need nitrates, phosphates and
micro-nutrients such as iron. Iron is highly insoluble in water and studies have
shown that where you have high levels of iron in the ocean you get high levels
of organic activity. This has a major impact on carbon dioxide levels because
the microscopic plants called phytoplankton that are stimulated by the iron
particles grow on the surface of the ocean and soak up CO2. When they die, they
sink to the bottom of the ocean and sequester the carbon. We know this from both
pilot studies and also the sediment record, which shows that this has happened
time and again during different climate periods.
And you'd argue that by fertilising areas of ocean with iron p
articles you can increase the amount of CO2 that is captured?
There is also a strong rationale as to why it makes sense. Ninety per cent of
the carbon on the planet is in the deep oceans in the form of dissolved
biocarbonate and it represents the most effective sequestration system on earth.
We also know from the sediment records that when dust levels in the atmosphere
increased as a result of different climatic periods, plankton productivity also
increased. The level of iron in the ocean is one of the primary contributors to
both organic activity in the ocean and lower CO2 levels in the atmosphere.
Increasing the level of iron particles in the ocean is a natural way of bringing
down carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.
There have been plenty of vocal critics who claim that
geo-engineering projects distract from the need to cut levels of carbon
emissions. What would your response be to that charge?
Reducing emissions has to be top priority and countries such as the US that have
thus far failed to step up to the plate should do so – and hopefully we are
beginning to see that happen now in the current election. But there are other
ways out there that we could mitigate the problem of climate change and help
take the edge off, and they should be investigated. We've seen from the
recent
Royal Society studies that more and more scientists are thinking that we
have to have these types of options in place.
Some environmental groups have also voiced fears that these projects
will disrupt delicate marine ecosystems.
No one is saying not to grow trees because you are changing the balance
of the planet, because trees are on land and we understand them better. There is
much more trepidation about promoting organic activity in the oceans, but it is
exactly the same process as growing more trees, only 40 times more effective as
a means of sequestering carbon.
But the fact remains that there is
considerable
concern about the potential impact of these projects on ecosystems?
People get concerned about what they don't understand and we are certainly
seeing a lot of people hear about concerns that are out there and just echo
them. There are some scientists who have legitimate questions about the process.
The first is does it work, what is the efficacy of ocean fertilisation? All 12
trial projects to date have been shown to be effective. The second question is
can you attribute carbon savings to these projects? We believe we can show that
can be done. The third question is what is the impact of these projects? People
have talked about ocean fertilisation leading to harmful algal blooms, but the
blooms that result from ocean fertilisation are exactly the same as those that
occur naturally. They are out in the deep ocean and are made up of the
phytoplankton that fish eat, they are very different from the toxic blooms that
result from fertiliser run off and can be found in coastal areas.
Are there any likely impacts on marine ecosystems besides an increase
in organic activity?
There is a concern that as the plankton fall to the bottom of the ocean, they
consume oxygen. The question that we haven't yet answered is whether that would
have a lasting impact on the deep ocean or whether oxygen levels would
recalibrate. If it does not recalibrate, then we would want to know what the
impact of lower oxygen levels might be and whether we would be willing to trade
lower CO2 levels in the atmosphere for potentially lower oxygen levels in the
deep ocean. We know oxygen levels have fallen in the past during the
interglacial period, but what was the impact? These are questions that should be
asked and attempts to answer them should be supported.
Some groups have been calling for a moratorium on ocean fertilisation
projects. Is this a cause for concern?
Contrary to some reports, there is no moratorium and projects are moving
forward. The International Maritime
Organisation (IMO) issued a statement of concern last year which signalled
that it wanted to look into the topic further and as a result, the
International Oceanographic Commission has
undertaken a scientific review on ocean fertilisation. The review effectively
asked oceanographers if projects were justified, on what scale they should be
allowed and whether they would be harmful. Our understanding is that the
consensus was that projects of up to 200 square km are justified and would not
have harmful impacts. The IMO is now scheduled to reconvene in October to
discuss the issue further.
What happens if ocean fertilisation projects result in unintended
impacts on the climate or marine ecosystems?
People have this idea with geo-engineering that it'll just be turned on like a
big switch. Now there are examples of geo-engineering that would work like that,
and when people talk about unintended consequences as a result of
geo-engineering, they tend to be talking about those types of projects. But with
ocean fertilisation, we have something you can turn off. Unlike some of the
toxic algal blooms, the blooms we'd create are not self perpetuating. If you
stop adding the iron the ocean relaxes back to its previous state – we have six
examples of precisely that happening in the last million years.
What are Climos' plans for the future?
Our focus at the moment is on clearing the regulatory pathways – these projects
need to be something the world is comfortable with, otherwise it will not get
done. We also need to find a location for a pilot project and we have been
looking at various potential sites. We then need to identify the scientific team
for assessing the effectiveness of the trial.
What would a pilot project focus on?
The effectiveness of the process is the first research question and we need more
study on that. The other issue is to assess the impact on oxygen levels.
Do you have a timeline for getting work under way?
We hope to announce the research team over the next year and we think the
southern ocean will be the best place for the trial. If that is the case, then
the first window for starting the trial would be the end of next year.
Climos is a business. How would you monetise ocean fertilisation
projects?
If projects sequester carbon from the atmosphere and we can measure that in a
way that is credible and independently verified, then it plays naturally into a
carbon market. Carbon is a $70bn global market already and it is built to
monetise the removal of carbon from the atmosphere or reductions in emissions
that would otherwise have been released.
Which component of the carbon market would you seek to operate in?
Could you get approval as a UN-backed Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project
or would you look to sell credits in the voluntary market?
This would not happen as a CDM project, because the CDM aims to transfer funds
from developed economies to developing economies and the ocean fertilisation
projects would be outside national boundaries. In the short term, it'll play
into the voluntary offset market, but if we really want to deliver big
reductions in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, then these
projects need to be on a large scale and will therefore need to part of an
official mechanism that sits alongside the CDM.
How soon would you envisage selling carbon credits?
If the results from the first cruise are positive, we will publish our
methodology for measuring carbon sequestration, seek independent verification
and begin to sell carbon credits arising from that first project.
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