A row has erupted over the UK's ability to address the energy gap over the
next decade following the publication today of a controversial report arguing
that the government's focus on expanding wind capacity and failure to develop
back up nuclear and fossil fuel capacity will lead to widespread power cuts.
The report from energy industry analysts
Fells Associates argues
that with a third of the UK's generation capacity due to be decommissioned by
2020 as nuclear and fossil fuel power stations are retired, prolonged power cuts
could become a common occurrence from 2013.
Critics, including the business secretary John Hutton, immediately accused
the report of exaggerating the scale of the threat, while hugely underestimating
the ability of renewable energy to address the energy gap.
But speaking to reporters earlier today, report co-author professor Ian
Fells, a long term supporter of nuclear power, said that the planned expansion
of wind energy could not be delivered quickly enough to plug the gap, while the
long-promised expansion in nuclear capacity was also not being built at
sufficient pace.
The report, titled
A
Pragmatic Energy Policy for the UK, argued that the only way to plug
the energy gap in the short term is to extend the life of fossil fuel and
nuclear power plants, while accelerating the development of a new fleet of
nuclear reactors to work alongside increased renewables capacity. It claimed
that the need to secure energy supplies was now so urgent that it should take
priority over climate change in the government's energy strategy.
Speaking to BusinessGreen.com, report co-author Candida Whitmill,
said that while the long term goal had to be to reduce carbon emissions, that
could only be achieved with a strong economy and as such, energy security had to
be achieved first.
She also argued that the threat of power cuts provided a further incentive
for firms to cut their energy use and invest in energy efficiency measures,
although she warned that such efforts may help ease energy demand, but would not
prove sufficient to solve the problem.
Government projections that an increase in offshore wind capacity to 33GW by
2020 will help plug the energy gap were branded technically impossible by
Whitmill, who argued that there was just one installation barge available and
that the UK wind industry would struggle to deliver more than 350MW of new
offshore capacity a year.
"Wind is not going to happen and even if it did, we'd still need back up
capacity [for when the wind is not blowing]," she said. "We have to go with
nuclear power which offers the only sufficient base load of power that is low
carbon… wind has a role to play, but not at the levels the government is talking
about."
She also argued that the development of the Severn Tidal Barrage, an increase
in biomass capacity and an extension of the energy grid to France, Germany and
Scandinavia could also help deliver a lower carbon energy mix that provides a
more secure supply than one based to a large extent on wind.
However, critics lined up to slam the report as inaccurate and biased,
accusing it of exaggerating the scale of the potential energy gap and down
playing the wind industry's ability to meet government targets.
"Ian Fells overstates the risk of the energy gap, but he also understates
what the government's already doing to secure our future supplies and increase
our energy independence," said business secretary John Hutton. "That's not to
underestimate the task we've got on our hands. Securing future energy supplies
for the UK is a matter of national security, so we're not going to rule out any
radical options."
Meanwhile, Greenpeace chief scientist Doug Parr said the report meant that
Fells had "finally lost the backing of the scientific community", adding that it
showed a disregard for the extent to which other countries were fast embracing
renewables to address their energy gaps.
"All over the world, jobs are being created in the renewable energy sector,"
he said. "But Britain has been left behind for too long by the negative, white
flag approach to climate change that this report represents. Professor Fells has
a long-standing love affair with the technologies of the 20th Century, but as
time goes by his fetish for coal and nuclear power looks increasingly naive."
The starkest criticism was delivered by the British Wind Energy Association,
which accused the report of "factual inaccuracies" regarding the wind industry's
ability to deliver capacity.
Speaking to BusinessGreen.com, Dr Gordon Edge said that far from
there being just one barge capable of installing offshore wind farms working in
the UK, there were seven already in operation and more to be built over the next
few years. He added that Whitmill's claim that the UK could only install 350MW
of offshore capacity a year was also "just plain wrong", predicting the sector
would be "doing more than that in 2009".
Edge also rejected the report's claim that a huge increase in conventional
fossil fuel and nuclear capacity will be required to provide back up for
renewables, arguing that rival models had shown that renewable energy could be
relied on. "We will require some back up for peak loads, but you need less
conventional plants with renewables than we have now," he said. "When you
combine wind, hydro, biomass and other forms you can rely on a renewables mix."
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