The full scale of the environmental and energy challenge facing the global economy was underlined today with the release of a major new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) warning that the world is currently on track to see carbon emissions more than double by 2050.
It estimated that to reverse this growth trend and attain the 50 per cent reduction in carbon emissions recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the global economy will need to invest $ 45 trillion, or 1.1 per cent of average annual global GDP, in alternative energy technologies up to 2050.
The biannual report, Energy Technology Perspectives, warns that based on current energy policies CO2 emissions will rise by 130 per cent by 2050, while demand for oil will climb by 70 per cent – an expansion equivalent to five times today's production of Saudi Arabia.
Speaking at the unveiling of the research in Tokyo, IEA executive director Nobuo Tanaka said that despite widespread recognition of the urgent need to curb greenhouse gas emissions, growth in CO2 emissions has accelerated considerably in recent years. "Higher oil and gas prices result in a rapid switch to coal," he explained. "Moreover rapid growth in China and India, both coal-based economies, has also contributed to this deteriorating outlook."
He also warned that as well as posing huge environmental risks, the business as usual scenario would also pose numerous energy security challenges, noting that increased demand for oil in particular "raises major concerns regarding energy supply access and investment needs".
The report – which is in response to a recent call from G8 leaders for recommendations on how best to develop a sustainable energy future – recommends a huge increase in clean technology investment that would see an additional $ 100bn to $200bn a year invested over the coming decade, rising to $1 trillion to $2 trillion a year in the coming decades.
It calls for investment in a wide range of different technologies, with an initial focus on cost effective energy efficiency measures followed by a huge increase spending on renewable energy and carbon capture systems.
According to the report, the relatively slow rate of clean technology development in the transport sector coupled with soaring global demand means that energy supply sector will need a "virtual decarbonisation" if the 50 per cent target is to be met.
For this to be achieved it claims that for each year between 2010 and 2050 the global economy will require an average of 35 coal and 20 gas-fired power plants to be fitted with CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technology, for an additional 32 new nuclear plants to be built and for wind capacity to increase by approximately 17,500 turbines.
Tanaka said that achieving this goal would require "immediate policy action and technological transition on an unprecedented scale", built around a massive increase in investment and a huge boost in the number of technology and engineering graduates.
"It will essentially require a new global energy revolution which would completely transform the way we produce and use energy," he said, adding that such a move, while costly, would deliver "tremendous" energy security benefits as well as huge environmental savings.




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