If climate change is not slowed it will spark conflicts of a similar
magnitude of the two World Wars, except that instead of lasting five years they
will wage for centuries.
That is the stark warning not of an apocalypse-predicting cult, but a report
from one of the UK's most respected defence think tanks, the
Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
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Released today,
the
report from former advisor to the Prime Minister's strategy unit and chief
executive of environmental group E3G
Nick Mabey argues that over the next few decades climate change will drive as
significant a change in the global security environment as the end of the Cold
War.
It also claims that the international response to the security threat posed
by climate change has been "slow and inadequate" and that governments must
integrate climate change into their security strategies as a matter of urgency.
Moreover, the report calls for a tenfold increase in clean tech research
spending to help ensure the worst effects of climate change are avoided.
Speaking to The Telegraph, Mabey said that governments were guilty
of ignoring the possible worst-case scenarios when addressing the climate change
threat. "We are preparing for a car bomb, not for 9/11," he said, adding that
planning for the top of the temperature range scientists are predicting would
help accelerate investment in clean tech. He insisted this investment would not
be wasted if temperature increases proved more manageable as the development of
clean technologies would be required anyway.
The report argues that a failure to mitigate climate change would lead to a
complete change in the global security landscape, noting that "our energy and
climate security will increasingly depend on stronger alliances with other l
arge energy consumers, such as China, to develop and deploy new energy
technologies, and less on relations with oil-producing states".
Mabey joins growing numbers of defence experts who are convinced that global
warming will provide the greatest threat to long-term stability this century.
Commentators have already linked the conflict in the Sudan with global warming
and experts have repeatedly speculated on the huge migration and attendant
security risks that would be caused by long-term droughts in India or China.
Speaking last year John Ashton, a senior diplomat at the Foreign Office,
argued that climate change should be presented as a security issue to mobilise
faster political action.
"We tend in our societies to take security more seriously than anything else
and you can do a lot of things in response to a security problem that you cannot
do in response to another type of problem," he said in an interview with Channel
4 News. "You can mobilise, for example, public investment much more quickly and
on a much bigger scale."
The RUSI report also further highlights the security factors businesses
should account for when assessing the medium to long-term risks posed by climate
change.
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