Just over a quarter of climate change experts believe it is likely or very likely that a post-Kyoto agreement will be agreed by 2009, according to a new survey from the World Conservation Union (IUCN) and the World Bank.

The results of the survey of 1,000 senior climate change officials from within governments, businesses, NGOs and the scientific community were released as reports emerged that negotiations at the UN's Bali conference had soured, with the EU and US at loggerheads over emissions targets for richer nations.

Earlier this week, the UN released a draft document that would have signed developed economies up to cutting emissions by between 25 and 40 per cent on 1990 levels by 2020. However, the US delegation said including targets at this stage would prejudge the outcome of future negotiations and called for reference to targets to be dropped.

However, according to Reuters reports, the EU is sticking to its guns and wants the targets to remain. Developing economies also want to see a clear indication from richer nations that they are committed to cutting emissions.

"I understand that it is still in the text," EU environment commissioner Stavros Dimas told reporters in Bali. "Of course it is crucial for the European Union, and not only for the European Union, in order to gather an effective fight against climate change we need this range of reductions for developed countries by 2020."

According to the IUCN and World Bank survey, climate change experts are neutral on the prospect of a post-Kyoto agreement being reached by 2009, however only a quarter appear confident that such a Treaty will be signed on schedule.

The survey found that over 92 per cent of respondents believe that all major carbon-emitting economies need to be included in any global climate change framework for it to prove effective, while 84 per cent want to see a commitment from wealthy countries to enable green technology transfer to developing economies.

But regardless of the outcome of the Bali negotiations, respondents confirmed that climate change is having a major impact on governments and businesses, with six out of 10 claiming climate is one of the top three factors affecting their organisation.

Furthermore, the report suggested that US and European support for first generation biofuels is largely misguided. Climate change experts ranked first generation biofuels bottom of a list of clean technologies, with just 21 per cent of respondents claiming it has the potential to "lower overall carbon levels in the atmosphere without unacceptable side effects" over the next 25 years.

In contrast, solar and wind energy were identified as having the most potential for enabling a low-carbon future, with over 60 per cent of respondents backing the technologies.

However, improved energy efficiency was highlighted as arguably the most accessible means of reducing carbon emissions, with respondents claiming they expected half of their organisations' reductions in carbon emissions over the next decade to come from energy demand management or efficiency improvements.