IFS review set to make waves

Of all the reviews of tax policy currently underway, the Mirrlees report could prove to be the most influential

Written by Alex Hawkes

The report, commissioned by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, is being billed as a new incarnation of the Meade report from the late 70s. That review underlined ideas of moving from a direct tax burden to an indirect tax burden, a shift that took place throughout the 1980s as the Tory governments then hiked VAT and dropped direct tax rates.

The challenge for the Mirrlees report will be to find a unifying idea that carves out a future UK tax system. Can the difficulties of tax complexity be resolved without creating windows for avoidance? Can the global mobility of companies and capital and the difficulties of transfer pricing be resolved in a sensible way?

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The difficulties for Mirrlees may be as much about staying ahead of the curve as anything else.

The Treasury is currently undertaking its own review of international taxation for instance, which takes into account a possible scrapping of tax on dividends and limitations to group relief. If it moves on that before the IFS review is concluded, it will have different issues to wrestle with, and perhaps fewer complications relating to the EC Treaty rules, which the UK government is trying to resolve through the discussions.

Separately, the Tories are set to report on their views on tax, which revolve around two ideas: cutting corporation tax to stimulate growth; and scrapping the range of reliefs which complicate the tax system.

That, equally, will pose a challenge to the IFS should the Tories come to power, in terms of shaping the direction of the tax system.

Looking at the review’s participants, it is strong on economists and short on business experience, giving it the scope to think broadly and originally. But will business feel the result is distant from reality?

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